Straight Digs

Photo by emdot

Is the media calling the Orange County housing bottom?  Here is a summary of recent news articles from the Orange County Register on the housing bottom over the last month:

October 7, 2009–The California Association of Realtors said home prices hit bottom early 2009 and forecasts that the median home price will rise 3.3% next year.

October 14, 2009–Prices and sales rose together, year-over-year, for the first time since September 2005.  15th consecutive month with year-over-year sales gains.

October 20, 2009–Aliso Viejo is the hottest housing market in Orange County with a market time of 1.2 months to sell all current inventory.  For all of Orange County, market time is down to 2.4 months from 4.76 months a year ago.

October 24, 2009–September national home sales had largest increase in 26 years and jumped 13% in the West.  Deutsche Bank chief economist calls the bottom.

October 28, 2009–Three Orange County cities, San Juan Capistrano, Lake Forest, and Tustin, are in state’s Top 10 price gainers in September.

October 29, 2009–UCLA economists project Orange County median price to rise next year by 15.9% to 16.6%.  Projected price increases to be smaller 2011-2015.

November 4, 2009–Expected market time for Orange County short sales is 56 days compared with 7 months a year ago.  Bank owned homes current inventory is just 21 days.

As with the housing peak, no one is going to perfectly call the housing bottom and no one can predict the future.  However, today the Orange County housing market is moving in the right direction, as reflect in the media reports.  If it continues, we will see price and sales increases in the future.

Photo by Kevin Dooley

According to a professor at the University of California-Berkeley, the market in Mission Viejo is now “normal” at least as far as liquidity goes.  Professor David Zetland told the Orange County Register that his Real Estate Market Index shows that the real estate market in Mission Viejo is much more liquid than it was this time last year.  He said his index shows that flat prices, low days on market, and higher sales indicate a market where home buyers and sellers can buy and sell homes in a “normal” market.

Having sold a few Mission Viejo homes in the last year, we can tell there is a dramatic difference between this year and last.  Last year, even the “best deals” stayed on the market for a long time, at least long enough to see them.  This past week we set appointments for many clients in Mission Viejo and surrounding cities like Irvine, Aliso Viejo and Lake Forest and often found a third of the listings we wanted to show sold by the time we went to show the homes.  This is not the frenzy of 2005, when you sometimes had to make an offer while at the house you were viewing if you wanted it, but it is moving much more quickly than it was in 2008.

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The Register is reporting up to the minute on the fires in Orange County.  Arson is currently suspected.  There are mandatory evacuations, road closures, and school closures.

Comments on the fires are regularly posting at the Metroblogging blog. 

One blog has proposed that terrorism is a possibility.  I’m not buying, except to the degree that arson is a form of terrorism.

The San Diego Union Tribune has a frequently updated blog reporting on the fires there and the LA Times is keeping up to date with the LA fires.

The Register has a page on insurance.  The California Department of Insurance linked articles were good.  I would strongly recommend inventoring your home if you haven’t already, including pictures (which you can store online).

Personally, we live in Laguna Niguel where there is no immediate fire danger, but the air quality is bad enough that schools are keeping children indoors all day and canceling all after school activities. 

Our prayers go out to those fighting fires, staying in shelters, and otherwise in danger.